KAZ Minerals PLC (KAZ.L) Quality Factors Under Review as GP Reaches 0.233113

Investors interested in quality ratios for KAZ Minerals PLC (KAZ.L) should take a good look at the Gross Profitability of the stock. Robert Novy-Marx, a professor at the university of Rochester, discovered that gross profitability – a quality factor – has as much power predicting stock returns as traditional value metrics. He found that while other quality measures had some predictive power, especially on small caps and in conjunction with value measures, gross profitability generates significant excess returns as a stand alone strategy, especially on large cap stocks.The Gross profitability for KAZ Minerals PLC (KAZ.L) is 0.233113.

When watching the day to day movements of the market, investors often have to be careful not to let external factors cloud their judgment. From time to time, there may be certain stocks taking off that look highly tempting to purchase. Getting into a position based on short-term price movements may be a specific strategy for some, but it may be highly costly for others. Even if a stock has been on a big run that the investor might have missed out on, there is no guarantee that the run will continue higher. Although there may be potential in highly publicized stocks, it may be wise for investors to do their own research and then decide if the stock fits with the overall goals.

Professor Novy-Marx’s key insight was that you don’t need to go further down the income statement as these numbers may get manipulated with accounting tricks. To identify really profitable firms, one should look at the top line, not the bottom line. In one of his papers, Novy-Marx compares gross profitability to the other most famous strategies such as Greenblatt magic formula, Piortoski F-Score, etc.

Novice investors might be striving to create a trading strategy that produces results in the equity market. Once all the research is complete and the stocks are picked, they may need to decide what kind of time frame they will be working with in terms of buying and selling. Some investors will be making longer-term term plays, and others will be trying to make shorter-term moves. At some point, every investor will have to decide when to sell a winner and when to cut loose a loser. This can be one of the most difficult decisions to make. Investors may find it really hard to sell an underperforming stock when they still believe that it will turn around and move to profit. Waiting around for a turn around that may never come can lead to the undoing of a well crafted portfolio. Regularly staying on top of the markets may allow the investor to make educated buy or sell decisions when the time comes. This may involve following major economic data, studying company fundamentals, and checking in on historical price movement and trends. Investors who are able to keep their emotions in check might find themselves in a better position than those who let emotions get the best of them. 

Total Asset Growth

In their 2008 paper, professors Cooper, Gulen and Schill provided evidence that a firm’s assets growth rates are strong predictors of future abnormal returns.

“The findings suggest that corporate events associated with asset expansion (i.e., acquisitions, public equity offerings, public debt offerings, and bank loan initiations) tend to be followed by periods of abnormally low returns, whereas events associated with asset contraction (i.e., spin-offs, share repurchases, debt prepayments, and dividend initiations) tend to be followed by periods of abnormally high returns.” – Cooper, Gulen & Shill in Asset Growth and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns. In a study on US data during the period 1967-2007, they find that:

– A hedge portfolio rebalanced annually that is long (short) the stocks of companies with the lowest (highest) percentage growth in total assets over the previous 12 months generates an average annual return of 22%.
– This asset growth effect is stronger for small capitalization stocks, but is still substantial for large capitalization stocks.
– The effect is strongest in the month of January.
– Asset growth rate retains large explanatory power for future stock returns after accounting for firm size, book-to-market ratio and momentum. In fact the asset growth effect is at least as powerful in explaining returns as these other widely used factors.

We calculate asset growth as follows:

Total Asset Growth = (Total AssetsTotal Assets y-1) − 1. KAZ Minerals PLC (KAZ.L) has a total asset growth number of 0.035938.

Net Debt to Market Cap

This ratio gives a sense of how much debt a company has relative to its market value. Companies with high debt levels compared to their peers can be volatile. We calculate it as follows:

Net Debt to Market Cap = (Total Debt−Cash and ST Investments) / Market Cap

KAZ Minerals PLC (KAZ.L) has a net debt to market cap ratio of 0.100945.

Altman Z Score

KAZ Minerals PLC (KAZ.L) has an Altman Z score of 2.03118. The Z-Score for predicting bankruptcy was published in 1968 by Edward I. Altman, who was assistant professor of finance at New York University at that time. It measures the financial health of a company based on a set of income and balance sheet values. The Altman Z-Score predicts the probability that a firm will go bankrupt within 2 years. In its initial test, the Altman Z-Score was found to be 72% accurate in predicting bankruptcy two years before the event. In a series of subsequent tests, the model was found to be approximately 80%–90% accurate in predicting bankruptcy one year before the event

Atman built the model by applying the statistical method of discriminant analysis to a dataset of publicly held manufacturers. Since then he has published new versions based on other datasets for private manufacturing (Z’-Score), non-manufacturing, service companies and companies in emerging markets. (Z”-Score)

Please also note that the original dataset used was quite small and consisted of only 66 firms of which half filed for bankruptcy. All companies were manufacturers and small firms (total assets less than $1m) were removed.

Stock market investors may be well aware of how turbulent the investing climate can be. Markets might be surging to new highs leaving the average investor to wonder what will happen next. When everything is going higher in the stock market, it may seem as though every pick is going to be a winner. Conversely, when things are going down, investors may be cursing the day they ever entered the markets. These ups and downs are a normal part of investing in the stock market. Having a well thought out investing plan may help ease the burden of day to day volatility. Many successful investors and traders will preach the wonders of sticking to an outlined plan. It may take some time to actually realize how well the plan is working. If after some time the results continue to be sub-par, then it may be time to devise a different plan.

VC3

Value Composite Three (VC3) is another adaptation of O’Shaughnessy’s value composite but here he combines the factors used in VC1 with buyback yield. This factor is interesting for investors who’re looking for stocks with the best value characteristics, but are indifferent to whether these companies pay a dividend.

VC3 is the combination of the following factors:

Price-to-Book
Price-to-Earnings
Price-to-Sales
EBITDA/EV
Price-to-Cash flow
Buyback Yield

As with the VC1 and VC2, companies are put into groups from 1 to 100 for each ratio and the individual scores are summed up. This total score is then put into groups again from 1 to 100. 1 is cheap, 100 is expensive.

The scorecard also displays variants of the VC3 where the score is calculated for the selected company compared to peer companies in the same industry, industry group or sector.

Please note that we use Book-to-Market instead of P/B since it allows a more accurate sorting compared to P/B. Stocks with a high B/M show up at the top of the list, stocks with negative B/M are at the bottom of the list. For the same reason we use Earnings-to-Price instead of Price-to-Earnings and Cash flow-to-price instead instead of Price-to-cash flow.

Also important is that we always make sure that companies with the same score get added to the same percentile. For stock universes where the number of stocks is less than 100, we make sure that the stocks are still allocated to percentiles from 0 to 100 instead of 0 to the total number of stocks. This is particularly relevant for the industry, industry group or sector variants where if additional filters are used, the number of stocks often drops below 100.

KAZ Minerals PLC (KAZ.L) has a VC3 of 13.

One of the biggest obstacles standing in the way of the individual investor is unrealistic expectations. Many times, investors will have an incorrect vision of what they expect to get from their investments in terms of actual returns. Creating unrealistic expectations can lead to overextending risk in the future. If an investor loses patience and thinks that they should be seeing bigger returns than they are currently generating, this may cause them to enter into a few ill advised trades in order to try to hit that previously determined number. Setting realistic, attainable goals may help the investor immensely, not just in terms of future returns, but in terms of the psyche as well.